These are some of the lessons we should learn about war. Most of them apply universally, to all war at all times:
(1) Stay out of war if possible. Its results can be devastating and are nearly always unpredictable. In addition to the moral objections to war --- the destruction of property, the injuries and death it causes --- It is generally an inefficient way to achieve political ends, at best, and frequently ineffective. War writes its own ticket. As General MacArthur, one of history's greatest practitioners of the arts of war, stated at the conclusion of the surrender ceremonies on the deck of the battleship Missouri in 1945, ending the conflict with Japan, "Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always". However, God does not withhold free will from humans and war was not closed. It still goes on.
(2) Understand fully the domestic political facts of a potential enemy. How much power does a putative head of state have in his own country? What domestic factors does he have to consider? After the presidential election of 1860, and prior to the inauguration on March 4, 1861, the date which was set for that purpose at that time, Abraham Lincoln dismissed the idea that the Southern states would actually secede from the Union or cause war. He thought it was all bluff and bluster. Had he fully understood domestic politics in the South, however, he would have realized that cotton-states politicians were beset with barely restrained rage and actually believed that Lincoln intended to oppress them and had the means and political following in the North to do so. Here, too, had they read Lincoln's inaugural address and understood the politics of the North, they would have realized that politically speaking they were more in control of the situation than was Abraham Lincoln at that time. There were many alternatives open to them and they could have proceeded responsibly and with discretion. They did not, and the results were disastrous. Lincoln and many others in the North themselves did not understand the politics of the situation. The fact that an enemy is dilusional does not mean that he is not dangerous. Both sides had dilusions about the other. That might not have been true had they had television, cell phones and fast transportation, but they did not. Furthermore, the tendency to believe one's own propaganda can be extremely dangerous. See paragraph 5.
(3) If war does start, a head of state owes it to his country to define its purposes clearly, and failure to do so can lead to demoralization and even defeat. In this regard Franklin Roosevelt provides a good example. As American participation in the Second World War got under way FDR stated that our goal was the "unconditional surrender" of the enemies, Germany and Japan. This told the world that we were not fooling around and told Americans of his determination to prosecute the war to the end to elicit the cooperation of the people and their institutions in that regard. Most important, it buoyed up the morale of our armed services, its leaders and men in the field of battle. They would not have the rug pulled out from under them after so many heroic sacrifices with some phony "peace negotiations, only to render in vain their devotion to their country. They would not be risking their lives and health for nothing. They were not fighting for politicians but for their country, and fighting for a goal they could understand and would recognize when it had been achieved. That was only half true in the Korean War and not at all true in Vietnam.
(4) Use more force than you think necessary. General Colin Powell advised "overwhelming force". The tragic failure of the Bay of the Pigs fiasco proved that very well. President Kennedy believed that the invasion could succeed without air power. Perhaps it might have, but his mistake was that he assumed so and failed to provide for contingencies if events proved him wrong.
(5) Never underestimate the tenacity, will and determination of the enemy. Never be deceived by your own propaganda. There is a scene in Gone With the Wind, taking place as the Civil War began to get underway. A group of party-goers have gathered at the Wilkes mansion and the men, all Confederates, are discussing the War and the short work they intended to make of the Union army. Gerald O'hara proclaims "The Yankees can't fight and we can". He was wrong, as four years and 600,000 battlefield mortalilties were to prove. Northerners made the same mistake, assuming that they would enjoy a short victory at the First Battle of Bull Run. They were defeated. The fact was that neither side had any monopoly on courage or fighting ability. Both were determined to win. And both sides had dilusions of grandeur which cost them dearly. A good general rule is that an invading force needs three times the troop strength as the defenders have. It is best for the invaders to have even more, and the same principle applies to naval and air power.
(6) Finally, just as it is a mistake to underestimate the force which will be needed to succeed and the tenacity and courage of the enemy, it is also a mistake to assume that the enemy is ten feet tall and cannot be defeated. The Korean War began with the invasion of South Korea by North Korea, as troops from the North poured over the thirty-eightth parallel into the South on June 25, 1950. Harry Truman persuaded the UN to join us in a war to push the North Koreans back over the line. With brilliant military maneuvers by General MacArthur, capped by an amphibious landing at Inchon on the west coast near Seoul, MacArthur pushed the North Koreans back across the thirty-eighth parallel and up to the Yalu River which formed the Korean-Chinese border. Truman met MacArthur at Wake Island in the mid-Pacific and asked him whether he thought the Chinese might come to the aid of the North. MacArthur assured him that they would not, and Truman gave him permition to proceed. But the Chinese did come in, with 1,000,000 men and Truman insisted on negotiating a peach agreement much against MacArthur's advice.
Years later, as the Vietnam War was heating up, Mao Tse Tung, the Communist dictator of China, visited Nikita Kruschev in Moscow. Kruschev asked Mao why he did not help the North Vietnamese just as he had helped the North Koreans, and Mao told him that MacArthur had had the Chinese army on the ropes in North Korea and that China had still not recovered from the consequences of that. Therefore, MacArthur could have pounded the Chinese army into retreat from all of Korea. He was on the verge of doing so when Truman pulled him back. If only Truman had known the facts as they were he could have made a better decision. This is not to blame him, or blame MacArthur, but just to point out that over-estimation of an enemy is just as possible as under-estimation. Union General George McClellan prolonged the Civil War by repeatedly over-estimating Confederate strength. There is no pat answer as to how to avoid this except to put the greatest emphasis on good intelligence, preparation, and the willingness to take calculated risks.
Best of all; avoid war in the first place.
(5) Never underestimate the tenacity, will and determination of the enemy. Never be deceived by your own propaganda. There is a scene in Gone With the Wind, taking place as the Civil War began to get underway. A group of party-goers have gathered at the Wilkes mansion and the men, all Confederates, are discussing the War and the short work they intended to make of the Union army. Gerald O'hara proclaims "The Yankees can't fight and we can". He was wrong, as four years and 600,000 battlefield mortalilties were to prove. Northerners made the same mistake, assuming that they would enjoy a short victory at the First Battle of Bull Run. They were defeated. The fact was that neither side had any monopoly on courage or fighting ability. Both were determined to win. And both sides had dilusions of grandeur which cost them dearly. A good general rule is that an invading force needs three times the troop strength as the defenders have. It is best for the invaders to have even more, and the same principle applies to naval and air power.
(6) Finally, just as it is a mistake to underestimate the force which will be needed to succeed and the tenacity and courage of the enemy, it is also a mistake to assume that the enemy is ten feet tall and cannot be defeated. The Korean War began with the invasion of South Korea by North Korea, as troops from the North poured over the thirty-eightth parallel into the South on June 25, 1950. Harry Truman persuaded the UN to join us in a war to push the North Koreans back over the line. With brilliant military maneuvers by General MacArthur, capped by an amphibious landing at Inchon on the west coast near Seoul, MacArthur pushed the North Koreans back across the thirty-eighth parallel and up to the Yalu River which formed the Korean-Chinese border. Truman met MacArthur at Wake Island in the mid-Pacific and asked him whether he thought the Chinese might come to the aid of the North. MacArthur assured him that they would not, and Truman gave him permition to proceed. But the Chinese did come in, with 1,000,000 men and Truman insisted on negotiating a peach agreement much against MacArthur's advice.
Years later, as the Vietnam War was heating up, Mao Tse Tung, the Communist dictator of China, visited Nikita Kruschev in Moscow. Kruschev asked Mao why he did not help the North Vietnamese just as he had helped the North Koreans, and Mao told him that MacArthur had had the Chinese army on the ropes in North Korea and that China had still not recovered from the consequences of that. Therefore, MacArthur could have pounded the Chinese army into retreat from all of Korea. He was on the verge of doing so when Truman pulled him back. If only Truman had known the facts as they were he could have made a better decision. This is not to blame him, or blame MacArthur, but just to point out that over-estimation of an enemy is just as possible as under-estimation. Union General George McClellan prolonged the Civil War by repeatedly over-estimating Confederate strength. There is no pat answer as to how to avoid this except to put the greatest emphasis on good intelligence, preparation, and the willingness to take calculated risks.
Best of all; avoid war in the first place.
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